![]() ![]() The skill of VICBAR is sensitive to the choice of the background field used in the objective analysis and the fields used to apply the boundary conditions. These boundary conditions improve the longer-range forecasts (60–72 h). ![]() During both 19, VICBAR had considerably more skill for forecasts of hurricanes than for forecasts of tropical storms.įor the 1990 season, VICBAR was generalized to include time-dependent boundary conditions from a global forecast model. Inland Flood HD Model, providing the means to develop a complete view of wind, storm surge, and tropical cyclone. For the, 1990 season, VICBAR had skill comparable to that of the operational track-forecast models. For the 1989 season, VICBAR had skill comparable to, or greater than, that of the operational track forecast models. The VICBAR model was tested in near real time during the 19 Atlantic hurricane seasons. This analysis and forecasting system is referred to as VICBAR (Vic Ooyama barotropic model). The spline representation is used for the objective analysis of observations and the solution of the prediction equations (shallow-water equations on a Mercator projection). The numerical method uses cubic B-spline representations of variables on nested domains. A numerical method for analysing and forecasting a wide range of horizontal scales of motion is tested in a barotropic hurricane track forecast model. ![]()
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